2021 fixed income outlook - March 2021
March 15, 2021
Hi, my name is Kosta Kleyman and I’m a biotech-pharma investment analyst at Columbia Threadneedle. A question that’s on everyone’s mind is: when do we go back to normal? And today we’re going to cover some of the most frequently asked questions about the vaccine and the virus.
How many vaccines are in development?
We have over 180 vaccines in development for COVID-19. For an average disease, you could see a dozen or two dozen drugs in the pipeline, so this is over tenfold more options that are currently being developed. This is also the fastest we’ve ever developed a vaccine, from start to finish taking as short as nine months. The fastest ever before took four years. So if these timelines hold up, the first emergency-use limited approval could come by the end of this year, by the end of 2020, and a more broader approval would come in the first half of ’21. All of this is contingent on how the final clinic data look like, which is the Phase 3.
We know that certain people will not be comfortable taking the vaccine, due to safety concerns. And we’ll only know whether those concerns are legitimate or not once we see the Phase 3 data, reading out over the next few months. The consumer surveys suggest that over 50 percent of people are willing to take the vaccine. And we only need about 70 percent of people to either get the vaccine or recover from the disease, to reach herd immunity. So our
Will there be enough supply once a vaccine is approved?
After a vaccine is approved by the FDA or another regulatory body, the question becomes will there be supply for that vaccine. Most companies that are in the lead for developing a vaccine have said they can produce about a billion doses by the end of 2021. And assuming there’s multiple vaccines approved, given the number that are currently being developed, there should be ample supply in 2021.