Positioning in Equity Income
- 02 mins 46 secs
In this video, Senior Portfolio Manager Michael Barclay and Head of Income and Growth Strategies David King talk about positioning in equity income for 2023.Channel: Columbia Threadneedle Investments
Columbia Threadneedle Investments is a leading global asset manager that provides a broad range of investment strategies for individual and institutional clients. To learn more, visit www.columbiathreadneedle.com/us
Michael Barclay: There is always going to be some risk that you have to contend with. However, you know, we do feel
like the Fed rate hikes, the inflation picture, supply chain issues, those could all be a lot better in 2023. And there's some
cause for optimism there.
David King: I think the equity market in 2023 will be driven by pockets of undervaluation. So I think that the key to it is not
necessarily assuming things are going to suddenly be wonderful, but looking for situations where securities were
overdone on the downside in 2022.
Michael Barclay: So thinking about the components of return for 2023, do you have the income component, which again,
income's been an important part of returns for almost 100 years now. And we believe that that could be stable in 2023.
The capital return part of the equation, though, is going to be determined based on how the multiple reacts.
David King: Historically dividend income, it's been about 40% of total return when you're considering equities, and
coupon has historically been a large part of bond returns. And I think in the equity market, the key is if it's a below-average
market, which is possible, dividend income instead of being 40%, could be 60% or even 70%. And I think that really
argues for a renewal of interest in income-oriented equity investing.
Michael Barclay: If the Fed does ease or start to again slow the pace of rate hikes, we do think the multiple part of the
equation can be a stabilizing force for returns. We do think earnings will grow. However, we think that right now
consensus expectations are probably still a little bit too high, and there has to be some digestion of that before we can
really see a growth because of that.
David King: I actually think the next couple of years could see a renaissance of kind of a value-driven approach to
growing your income old fashioned, buy low, sell high, as opposed to the more ruler approach of like, hey, this is a great
company. I mean, I think many well-known good companies are going to raise their dividend in 2023, even if the economy
is a little soft. But you may get more mileage out of buying something that you could buy at 40 that used to be 100 where
the dividend is safe.